MUBARAK nunut Soeharto PASCA 30 tahunan

Mubarak di Ambang Kejatuhan
MINGGU, 30 JANUARI 2011 | 05:55 WIB


TEMPO Interaktif, Kairo - Presiden Mesir Husni Mubarak, yang telah berkuasa selama 31 tahun, berada di ambang kejatuhan. Pernyataan Mubarak pada Sabtu dinihari, bahwa ia akan membentuk pemerintahan baru yang reformis, ditolak oleh puluhan ribu demonstran. Massa dengan jumlah jauh lebih besar memenuhi seantero Mesir kemarin.

Koresponden Tempo Akbar Pribadi, yang berada di tengah kerumunan sekitar 50 ribu orang di Tahrir Square, Kairo, tadi malam, melaporkan bahwa para pengunjuk rasa kini mengusung satu slogan: "Ganti rezim Mubarak." Aksi demo kemarin terhitung yang terbesar sejak unjuk rasa yang menewaskan sekitar 100 orang ini mulai digelar Selasa lalu.

"Kami ingin Mubarak pergi!" kata Mohammad Sharif, seorang demonstran. "Pidatonya justru memancing kemarahan lebih banyak orang."

Di televisi, Mubarak mengatakan telah menunjuk Kepala Intelijen Omar Suleiman sebagai wakil presiden dan Ahmad Shafiq sebagai perdana menteri tadi malam. Sebelumnya, dia menjanjikan reformasi di pemerintahannya.

Tapi semua upaya itu sepertinya akan sia-sia. Mohammad El Baradei, peraih Nobel Perdamaian yang kini tokoh oposisi, menekankan bahwa sekaranglah saatnya bagi presiden berusia 82 tahun itu untuk pergi. "Cukup sudah bagi Mubarak. Sekarang rakyat Mesir meminta dia mundur," ujarnya.

Pengamat politik Timur Tengah dari Queens University di North Carolina, Profesor Mohammed el-Nawawy, mengatakan kian besarnya skala demonstrasi di Mesir dan diturunkannya militer untuk menangani pengunjuk rasa membuktikan bahwa Mubarak telah putus asa.

Tanda-tanda kekuasaan Mubarak berada di tubir jurang antara lain ditunjukkan oleh televisi pemerintah yang mulai berbelok "membela" massa. Nil TV, misalnya, mulai menyebut "puluhan ribu demonstran" dan melaporkan penggunaan gas air mata oleh polisi. Sebelumnya, mereka menyebut demonstran sebagai "perusuh". Stasiun itu kini dijaga ketat tentara untuk menghindari pengambilalihan massa.

Pegawai negeri di beberapa kota juga menyatakan mogok sampai waktu yang tidak ditetapkan. Pegawai negeri di Alexandria bahkan terang-terangan ikut turun ke jalan.

Akbar Pribadi (Kairo) | Reza M | Anton William | YR (AP, CNN, Al Jazeera)
Could it be any worse?
Jan 28th 2011, 16:57 by Lexington



SO NOW we know: as far as President Mubarak is concerned, he's not going anywhere. In a brief speech to the nation late on Friday night he said that he was dismissing his government and appointing a new one, but that he was staying—for the sake of Egypt, of course. He favoured more democracy and economic improvements, but he would not allow the chaos to spread.

Since the one thing the rioters seemed to agree on is that he had delighted them long enough after 30 years on the presidential throne, and should depart for Saudi Arabia, it is impossible to know whether his decision to brazen it out will quieten or inflame the situation. The latter, one imagines. But—and this is speculation only—it must be assumed that the president secured the backing of the armed forces before deciding to make his stand. Thus the stage could be set for a more violent confrontation on the streets, which remain thronged in defiance of an official curfew.

Shortly after Mubarak spoke, so did Barack Obama. He called on the Egyptian president to "give meaning" to his promises to improve the lot of the Egyptian people. But all this makes it a cruel irony that Mr Obama chose Cairo as the venue for the big speech in 2009 that was designed to start to restore America's relations with the Muslim world. One of the main promises he held out there—American help for Palestinian statehood—has recently run into the sand as the result of what even his admirers admit was a sequence of cack-handed diplomatic fumbles, notably the mistake of picking a fight over Israeli settlements and then backing down. Now he will be judged, not only in Egypt but well beyond, by whose side he takes in the showdown between Hosni Mubarak and the Egyptian people.

So far, the administration has been trying hard to avoid making a choice: Mubarak is our ally but we deplore violence and are on the side of "reform", goes the line. Hillary Clinton has called for restraint on all sides and for the restoration of communications. She said America supported the universal rights of the Egyptians, and called for urgent political, economic and social reforms. This is a sensible enough line to take, but sitting on the fence becomes increasingly uncomfortable as events unfold.

As for what is really going on behind the scenes in Washington, nothing is clear yet. A bloodbath that kept Mr Mubarak in power would be a tragedy in itself and a disaster for America's reputation in the region. Perhaps the least bad outcome for America would be for Mr Mubarak to stand down, but with power passing to a person or group broadly friendly to the superpower. But who?

The question of who would succeed Mr Mubarak, even if he died peacefully, has always been a riddle. He has never appointed a vice-president and was trying to wheedle his son Gamal into the job. If the (American armed and trained) army itself does not take over, there are various pro-Western grey eminences lurking behind the scenes. Omar Suleiman, the suave intelligence chief, is close to the Americans and has fairly intimate relations with Israel, but is reported to be ill. Failing that, Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the IAEA nuclear watchdog, is at least a known quantity, though what America knows about him it does not much like. In American eyes he tilted too far towards Iran in his previous job, and is alarmingly hostile to Israel.But at least he is not a member of the Muslim Brotherhood.

One consoling thought going the rounds in Washington is that the Brotherhood's support is limited—and many of those demonstrating now against the regime would be appalled if the Brothers took over. But remember the Iranian revolution of 1979? That started with a broad group of opposition movements: secular leftists, liberals and trade unions as well as the Islamists. Only afterwards did the Islamists claim the revolution for themselves.
Egypt Revolution: Inside a Cairo Street Protest
In the Egyptian capital, demonstrators are defying President Mubarak’s curfew and fighting police. Ursula Lindsey joined a group of young protesters Friday and reports on the dramatic scenes.
by Ursula LindseyJanuary 28, 2011

Egyptian demonstrators flash V-signs next to a burning police vehicle in as protests erupt in Cairo on January 28, 2011.

After a day of historic protests, Cairo has entered a restless night as youths continue to fight police in the city’s central square and the national party headquarters and national museum burn.

An overnight curfew has been declared in Cairo, with President Hosni Mubarak calling in the army after a day of increasingly dramatic clashes between protesters and security forces.

The roar of the crowds and the beat of tear gas canisters being fired had reverberated through the Egyptian capital all day Friday. Inspired by the Tunisian revolution and fed up with Mubarak’s 30 years of authoritarian rule, thousands of protesters attempted to converge on the city’s central Tahrir Square to send a message that the time for change has come.

Meanwhile, the country was plunged into a telecommunications black hole, as the government took the unprecedented step of shutting down the Internet, cellphone service, and even most international telephone lines.

Early Friday morning, in a house in the middle-class neighborhood of Agouza, a group of young activists watched Al Jazeera and waited anxiously for the revolution to start.

Several of the young people in the room were members of Nobel laureate and would-be presidential candidate Mohamed ElBaradei’s Campaign for Change. Many of them also have links to the We Are All Khaled Said protest movement, which was formed after a young Egyptian man of that name was apparently beaten to death in police custody last year.

Sally, 32, is a psychiatrist who just moved back to Cairo from London, partly because, she says, “I want to see change.”

Salma and Omar, 19 and 22, are the niece and nephew of a political opposition figure. Salma, a slight, soft-voiced brunette, has already been arrested once for her political activism. She and her brother both say, matter-of-factly, that they’re ready to die to “free Egypt from this terrible regime.”

Ziad, 30, whose home this is, is a human rights lawyer and longtime activist. His mother, Ekram, a journalist, was one of 50 student militants arrested by President Sadat after Egypt’s 1977 bread riot—the last time Egyptians revolted this dramatically against their government. Today Ekram laid out a big breakfast of bread, olives, jam, eggs, and fruit juice. “Eat up,” she told her son and his friends. “You’re going to be running around all day.” She, meanwhile, would stay home to man the precious working land line.

All of the activists were surprised by the success of last Tuesday’s “Day of Rage” protest, when thousands of demonstrators roamed freely through the city, easily overwhelming a seemingly flabbergasted security apparatus. Nobody expected it to be that easy Friday. Indeed, everyone expected violence. “These dictators, they never learn their lesson,” said Ekram. “They understand—like Ben Ali—too late.”

Friday’s demonstrations were coordinated by groups across the spectrum of Egypt’s political opposition, including young members of the Muslim Brotherhood, who had agreed, however, not to chant religious slogans. But activists were deprived of all the tools they have used so far to organize—Twitter, Facebook, and SMS service on cellphones were shut down Thursday. By Friday morning, Internet and cellphone service across the country was gone. The activists had to resort to traditional organizing: designated land lines and safe houses; face-to-face meetings; pre-arranged rendezvous.

The plan was for large groups to gather, right after Friday prayers, in four or five Cairo neighborhoods.

At 1:15, we headed out of Ziad’s house. In groups of twos and threes, we walked along nearly empty streets toward a large square on the eastern side of the Nile. Along the way, we passed many groups of plainclothes police.

In the square, a crowd of about 2,000 people materialized. Protesters waved Egyptian flags and called out, “Hey Egyptian...Get down here!” and “We want...the fall...of this regime!”

While Ziad and his friends are mostly seasoned political activists, many of the demonstrators I spoke to were out on the street for the first time. That was the case of Doa’, a veiled 34-year-old who works in a supermarket and was at a demonstration for the first time. She’d never joined before, she says, because “I was not believing any change will happen.” But she was outraged by the deaths of seven protesters over the last three days. In Egypt today, “People are treated in a very bad way and poverty is increasing,” she said.

Doa’ was part of a joyful crowd that included professional and working-class Egyptians, Muslims, and Christians, men and women, and whole families from toddlers to grandmothers. But today many of the fist-time protesters like Doa’ have experience the state’s heavy-handed tactics. The government mobilized a massive security presence Friday: 450,000 central security troops were resportedly dispersed across the capital. They fired tear gas and rubber bullets at protesters.

ElBaradei was greeted with water cannons and tear gas when he and his supporters exited Friday prayers. He is now under house arrest.

Meanwhile, Tahrir Square was the scene of pitched battles. By 3 p.m., protesters say, the authorities had started firing rubber bullets at them. Demonstrators carried the wounded across nearby Kasr Al Aini bridge, then flagged down taxis and called ambulances. Minutes away, in one of the five-star hotels along the Nile, foreign tourists asked frantically whether they could place calls outside the country.

At dusk, the authorities announced a curfew. The headquarters of Mubarak’s National Democratic Party were reportedly on fire. All communication networks were still down. Ekram, Zaid’s mother, still had no news of her son or any of his friends. “God protect them,” she said.

What seems clear after Friday is that Egypt seems well past any possible compromise on negotiation. Mubarak’s regime sees the protesters’ calls for a change as an existential threat and has responded with overwhelming force. But the demonstrators, who in the last few days have glimpsed an alternate future for their country, don’t seem ready to back down. No one here knows what tomorrow will bring.
After Mubarak, will Egypt face a void?

(CNN) -- Most Egyptians have known no president but Hosni Mubarak. In fact, one-third of them were born after Mubarak had already been in power for 15 years. Now, very suddenly, the people of Egypt are asking who might replace the man often dubbed Egypt's last pharaoh.

There are no obvious answers. And the pharaoh himself, now 82 years old, shows no sign of going quietly.

Mubarak has not had a vice president since he came to power in 1981, and has been quick to neutralize any challenge to his power from within. His ministers have been largely technocrats without a political base of their own. For almost 10 years, the chatter among the Egyptian elite has been about a "dynastic transition" to Mubarak's younger son, Gamal -- a long tradition in the Arab world.

U.S. diplomatic cables sent from the Cairo embassy since 2006 and published by WikiLeaks have often been preoccupied with the succession. Five years ago, one cable observed that Mubarak's wife, Suzanne, was their son's "most ardent booster" but added: "The possibility that Gamal might succeed his father remains deeply unpopular on the street."

Most notably, the cable noted that "unlike his father, (Gamal) cannot take the military's support for granted," having never served as an officer.

Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations -- who was in Cairo until Thursday -- says the protests mean "we can dismiss the possibility of Gamal Mubarak" succeeding his father. The Mubarak name is now tarnished beyond repair.

Elliott Abrams, also with the Council on Foreign Relations, agrees, posting on his blog that the protests "make it impossible that the son should succeed the father. Efforts to cram him into that position would give rise to public discontent far greater than we are seeing already."

Demonstrators in several cities in Egypt Friday tore down posters of Gamal Mubarak.

But if not the son, then who? A U.S. cable from Ambassador Margaret Scobey in 2009 lamented the lack of obvious contenders, saying Mubarak "has no single confidante or advisor who can truly speak for him, and he has prevented any of his main advisors from operating outside their strictly circumscribed spheres of power."

Thomas P. Barnett of forecasting group Wikistrat put it more colorfully: "Let me give you the four scariest words I can't pronounce in Arabic: Egypt after Hosni Mubarak."

The man at the center of a nascent opposition movement is Mohamed ElBaradei, Nobel laureate and former secretary general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Last year, he returned to Cairo and formed the National Association for Change, entertaining even then that he might run for president. After a long career at the United Nations, ElBaradei is the consummate diplomat and negotiator, but some commentators ask whether he has the street instincts to deal with the rough and tumble of a volatile, fast-moving popular uprising.

Some Egyptian opposition activists have also been critical of ElBaradei's late arrival on the scene (he landed in Cairo Thursday evening and there were few supporters at the airport to greet him), and his frequent absences overseas since launching his group. On the other hand, he has won plaudits for boycotting last year's parliamentary election, which turned out to be tainted by widespread fraud. And Friday, he showed he was ready to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with protestors.

Another prominent Egyptian not currently associated with the government is Arab League Secretary-General Amer Moussa, a former Egyptian foreign minister. At the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, he acknowledged that "the Arab citizen is angry, is frustrated. That is the point. So the name of the game is reform." But he has shown no public interest in being involved in the process and would have to give up his current post to return to the fray of Egyptian politics.

The most widespread opposition movement, through mosques, education and welfare programs, is the Muslim Brotherhood, which is officially banned but tolerated within strict limits. It is no surprise that leaders of the Brotherhood were among the first political figures to be detained.

But years of harassment and detention have hollowed out the Brotherhood as a political force. It has not been in the vanguard of these protests and the consensus among commentators is that the Egyptian military would not tolerate the Brotherhood in power.

In any event, says Barnett -- formerly a professor at the U.S. Navy War College -- events in Egypt and Tunisia show that the "Islamist narrative" to explain the woes of the Arab world is being challenged by a maturing and well-educated youth movement whose expectations of a better life have been dashed by economic stagnation and a stifling political atmosphere.

Amr Hamzawy, research director and senior associate at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, notes in an article for the Los Angeles Times: "While the Muslim Brotherhood youth and some of their leaders participated in the protests, there were no signs saying, "Islam is the solution." Egyptians have grown accustomed to the same political forces and opposition personalities in the streets, but this fundamentally changed."

There is the possibility -- according to commentators in and beyond Egypt -- of the military acting as the "handmaiden" of any transition.

Cook of the CFR says the central question for the military command is whether and when it comes time to see Mubarak as a liability. Historically, the army is averse to "public order" duties, though it has moved in at time of crisis in the past (for example, helping to quell bread riots in 2008 -- by baking bread).

But Cook points out that the army chief of staff, Sami Annan, and others have been hand-picked by the president. Unlike Tunisia, where the military played a role in calling time on President Ben Ali, "the Egyptian army is organically tied to the regime," says Cook. And loyalty has always been a more important factor in promotion than competence, according to Egyptian analysts cited in U.S. diplomatic cables.

In the past, U.S. diplomats have discussed the possibility of Omar Suleiman, the head of the intelligence service for nearly 20 years, as a transitional leader. Now, the very public hostility to anyone close to Mubarak, and especially anyone attached to the security apparatus, may make that option less likely.

Barnett, chief analyst at Wikistrat, says Mubarak's best -- and perhaps only -- option may now be to announce an "exit date" to take the sting out of the protests, organize an orderly transition to fresh elections and hand authority to a caretaker Cabinet that could focus on growing the economy.

U.S. Sen. John Kerry, D-Massachusetts, takes a similar view: "President Mubarak has the opportunity to quell the unrest by guaranteeing that a free and open democratic process will be in place when the time comes to choose the country's next leader later this year."

Several observers say the United States' best hope is that Mubarak addresses the protestors' demands quickly and lays out a road map to real democracy.

As Cook puts it, "The idea that people could come together and oust a dictator has electrified the opposition. But this is a leaderless movement." And one thing Egypt-watchers agree upon: the speed of events, the sudden cry of "kifaya" -- "enough" -- in a country where politics has long been dormant makes prediction foolhardy.

'We are witnessing today an Arab people's revolution'

(CNN) -- We are in the midst of a brave new world.

The uprisings raging from Tunisia to Egypt to Yemen are heralding a new Arab, post-Islamist revolution.

Today's events across Egypt illustrate the futility of a dictatorial Mubarak regime seeking to push back the tides of history with mere repression and brutality. They will not succeed.

President Hosni Mubarak's days, like those of deposed Tunisian President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali, are numbered. The effects on the region were, until today, unthinkable.

Today's Arab revolution is no less significant than those that preceded it in recent decades in Eastern Europe and Latin America. This time, Arabs are not being led by their leaders -- from colonialism to pan-Arabism or Islamism or any other "ism" -- as was the case in the past.

Instead, they have turned on those leaders who have failed to provide them their dignity, justice and a better life. Make no mistake, we are witnessing today an Arab people's revolution.

Like those before them, today's Arab revolution will transform the region's politics. What is happening today is nothing short of what the respected Arab commentator, Rami Khouri, prophetically described late last year as the birth of Arab politics. He was right. Politics in the region will never be the same again.

Propelled by the young and the digital revolution, citizens will demand nothing less than the right to choose and change their representatives in the future.

To glimpse the nature of what can emerge, we should understand the rapidly changing social structure of Arab societies. Those societies are more educated, urban and connected than ever before. Due to the phenomenal growth of secondary and university-level education, literacy rates among the region's youths have skyrocketed in the past 40 years. The percentage of people living in Arab cities has risen by 50% in the same period.

The number of mobile phone users and internet users has proliferated to hundreds of thousands since the technology was introduced to the region 10 or 15 years ago. No wonder, then, that the people have finally snapped at the lack of opportunity and representation and the high levels of corruption and control that characterize their lives.

Most tellingly, more has united the protesting people than divided them. Notable has been the absence of a clear, emerging leader of the protests, particularly from Islamist party leadership.

The call for dignity, justice and a better life has been a universal value -- not the domain of any one particular opposing party or movement. Instead, the national movements, which these conditions have spawned, will continue to demand a political system that is more pluralistic, democratic and produces effective and competent governments sensitive to the legitimate aspirations of all the society's people.

Crucially, the unfolding events will also require a new set of calculations from the old regimes' main backers: the United States and its allies. The long-term changes for Western policy in the region should be profound. Gone should be the reflex to side with those who willfully subvert the democratic and constitutional process out of fear of the Islamist boogeyman.

The binary calculation between supporting stability on the one hand and the risks of unprecedented regime change, particularly the rise to power of Islamist parties, no longer holds. The people of the region are deciding.

The irony is that while U.S. policymakers have been playing catch-up, it has largely been U.S.-created technology -- the internet, particularly Facebook and Twitter -- that has sustained the spread of the Arab revolution.

Now is the time for policymakers to suggest an appropriate response to support a peaceful political transition in each country. Western policymakers must strike a careful balance between ensuring key interests (including support for a comprehensive peace in the Arab-Israeli conflict and Israel's security) and respecting the wishes of the region's people. In this regard, support for the peace process and Israel's interests will best be ensured by real and tangible progress over the next year.

In the case of Egypt, the most populated Arab nation and symbol of Arab leadership, the transition will be particularly important. If managed well, it will provide a useful example for all in the days and weeks ahead. The U.S. in particular has a role in persuading Mubarak to outline a peaceful transition of power to an interim administration that will manage the process to a new democratic constitution and elections.

There should also be a role for international and regional organizations such as the United Nations, the European Union, the Gulf Council and the Organization of the Islamic Conference to lend technical and material support to the transition.

It has not been lost on many that the U.S. and other Western governments have been trying to catch up to the unfolding events -- attempting to balance support for old friends and allies with a call for restraint and urgent economic and political reforms.

This will not do. It is time to break through the past fears that have guided Western policy with fresh hope for a better future for the people of the region. It is time to choose change.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Salman Shaikh.

Egyptians brace for Friday protests

The politically embattled nation of Egypt -- rocked and stunned by an eruption of surprisingly bold street protests this week -- is bracing for a major demonstration on Friday.

There was still a smattering of street protesters in Egypt on Thursday after massive public protests on Tuesday and Wednesday calling for the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak convulsed the nation and prompted a tough security crackdown.

There's been talk of a huge outpouring after Friday prayers, and now two major symbols of opposition plan to make their presence known in the nation.

The Muslim Brotherhood has called for its followers to demonstrate after the weekly Muslim prayers -- the first time in the current round of unrest that the largest opposition bloc has told supporters to take to the streets.

Mohamed ElBaradei, the Egyptian Nobel laureate and opposition leader, is returning home from Europe on Thursday and plans to participate in the big protests.

"I am there to make sure that things will be managed in a peaceful way," ElBaradei said as he was waiting to leave Vienna, Austria.

"I have to give them as much support, political support, spiritual, moral, whatever I can do, you know," he said. "I will be with them. They are my people, and I have to be there, and I'd like to see Egypt, a new Egypt."

Cairo was quiet Thursday compared to previous days, but there appear to have been smaller skirmishes, and more are anticipated as night comes.

In Suez, the port city east of Cairo on the Gulf of Suez, people congregated to demand the release of those detained, and clashes broke out between demonstrators and security forces, a witness told CNN.

in Ismaeliya, Hani Abdel Latif, an Interior Ministry official, said 50 people demonstrated peacefully. But there were news reports of clashes there.

Egypt briefly closed its stock market Thursday after it fell sharply. It reopened about an hour later.

The protest movement in Egypt has been fueled by blogs, Twitter and Facebook, and ElBaradei, who is also the former head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency, has been posting messages of support for the demonstrators on Twitter.

In an interview Tuesday on CNN's Connect the World, ElBaradei disputed a recent comment from U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that the Egyptian government is stable.

"Stability is when you have a government that is elected on a free and fair basis. And we have seen, you know, how the election has been rigged in Egypt. We have seen how people have been tortured," he said.